THOMAS E. RICKS from FP gives a brief analysis of what a modern day civil war in the US would look like. In touching on several aspects of that I believe would hold true but several that are underplayed, you read, you decide, you comment.
It would likely be a patchwork of affiliated insurgency groups and their counterparts engaging in light skirmishes along the overlapping edges of their networks, mixed with occasional high-value terror attacks against soft and hard targets. Such groups are much smaller than conventional militaries and where they lack in firepower, they wield
That much I can agree with, the average person will not engage in fighting, they will avoid getting involved.
He is also touching on another issue that is important but is not being credited, the lacking of a larger goal and leadership. In doing so he is discounting the involvement of larger organizations leaving his interpretation of the big picture to conclude that only small faction actors would be in play. Where this is possible it is lacking the overall concept where a group of states acting together is working towards one single goal.
Just as we risk missing the signs of networked violence, thinking in terms of a classic civil war can blind us to the many actors working to disrupt the U.S. from within and beyond our borders.
Again, solid point, the biggest risk to any domestic factions will be the outside influences that will seek to push buttons and hidden agendas. Guarding against this would be difficult.
With these characteristics in mind we can envision what a modern U.S. civil war might look like. More sporadic and unexpected conflicts but with fewer deaths
I disagree with fewer deaths, maybe on the field but he is ignoring the larger issues of disruptive effects in civil society where logistical pieces come into play. A lukewarm response to COVID like a hurricane warning being issued cleared domestic shelves nationwide. The results of any disturbance would bring millions of deaths simply from the attrition of logistics.
To counter this emerging threat in America it’s critical to establish more formal practices for identifying and tracking domestic extremism — with an honest recognition that young, white males on both ends of the political spectrum are the most likely to commit violence. Likewise, we must formalize robust network analysis to map and track these distributed groups across their digital territories and to identify their backers, funders, and agitators. Finally, there needs to be a very serious conversation about how to regulate Facebook, YouTube, and Twitter as platforms for influence, instigation, propaganda, and recruiting.
You can start to see the writing on the wall in his closing paragraphs and better understanding the massive upswing of censorship and control, it isn’t just about suppressing elections.
Furthermore, you can also understand the importance of isolation being exploited with initiatives like COVID. Where all science has been set aside in palace narratives. To oversimplify this, keeping individuals isolated is paramount to killing off disruptions before they can form.